Linear regression works on real numbers $\mathbb{R}$, that is, the input and output are in $\mathbb{R}$. For probabilities, this is problematic because the linear regression will happily give a probability of $-934$, where we know that probabilities should always lie between $0$ and $1$. This is only by definition, but it is an useful definition in practice. Informally, the *logistic* function converts values from real numbers to probabilities and the *logit* function does the reverse.

The logistic function converts values from $(-\infty, \infty)$ to $(0, 1)$:

$$\text{logistic}(x) = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-x}}.$$

We can easily define this function ourselves:

`mylogistic(x) = 1 / (1 + exp(-x));`

But, also load it from `StatsFuns.jl`

:

`using StatsFuns: logistic`

`mylogistic(1) == logistic(1)`

true

Graphically, this looks as follows:

If you care enough, you could decide to remember the plot by heart. Some people advise to remember the following numbers by heart.

$$\begin{aligned} \text{logistic}(-3) &\approx 0.05, \\ \text{logistic}(-1) &\approx \tfrac{1}{4}, \\ \text{logistic}(1) &\approx \tfrac{3}{4}, \: \text{and} \\ \text{logistic}(3) &\approx 0.95. \end{aligned}$$

since

`r2(x) = round(x; digits=2);`

`logistic(-3) |> r2`

0.05

`logistic(-1) |> r2`

0.27

`logistic(1) |> r2`

0.73

`logistic(3) |> r2`

0.95

The inverse of the logistic function is the *logit* function:

$$\text{logit}(x) = \log\frac{x}{1 - x}$$

`mylogit(x) = log(x / (1 - x));`

`using StatsFuns: logit`

`logit(1) == mylogit(1)`

true

This function goes from $(0, 1)$ to $(-\infty, \infty)$:

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CairoMakie 0.10.5StatsFuns 1.3.0